Paul’s Naughty or Nice Starts of the Week – Week 16

QB

Nice Start

  • Matt Barkley, Chicago Bears (vs. Washington Redskins)

Barkley has been surprisingly good for fantasy purposes since taking over for Chicago. I wouldn’t classify him as a great QB, but more of a great fantasy option. Washington has given up the 8th most fantasy points to QBs this year, and Barkley is not afraid to throw it. The return of Alshon Jeffrey gives him additional weapons and confidence and this game should be a shootout.

Prediction: 325 Passing Yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs: 21-25 Fantasy Points

Naughty Start

  • Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Baltimore Ravens)

This kills me since the Steelers are my favorite team, but in the interest of not being a homer I can’t buy into Big Ben this week. Ben has struggled against the AFC North this season averaging only 16.25 fantasy points per game. During Fantasy Championship Week, you need 20+ fantasy points from your QB and I don’t think he gets there. Ravens give up 8th fewest fantasy points to QBs.

Prediction: 265 Passing Yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs: 14-18 Fantasy Points

RB

Nice Start

  • Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams (vs. San Francisco 49ers)

Strange to have him on a surprise stud column, but its week 16 and Gurley has been one of the biggest fantasy busts all year. Good news, Jeff Fisher is gone and the Rams get the 49ers. I expect John Fassel to go back to the basics and rely on his best player. Again, it doesn’t hurt that the Rams gets the 49ers, who give up the most fantasy points to RBs this season.

Prediction: 110 Total Yards, 2 TDs: 18-23 Fantasy Points

Naughty Start

  • Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina Panthers)

Hard to bench this guy after last week, nor could I expect anyone to. Keep this in mind, Freeman is only averaging 12.8 fantasy points per game when on the road. His only two games of those seven road games he scored over 12 FP was against the Saints and the Broncos, two of the worst against RBs. Now he gets Carolina on the road who give up the 8th fewest fantasy points to RBs.

Prediction: 85 Total Yards and 0 TDs: 7-11 Fantasy Points

WR

Nice Start

  • Golden Tate, Detroit Lions (at Dallas Cowboys)

Tate has been nothing shy of amazing the second half of 2016 for fantasy owners. Back in Week 5 this was a droppable player. Since then all he has done was average 14.4 fantasy points per game. He has solidified himself as an WR2. Over the last three weeks he is averaging over 11 targets per game.

Prediction: 8 Receptions, 120 Receiving Yards and 1 TD: 18-22 Fantasy Points

Naughty Start

  • Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver Broncos)

I said this on last week’s podcast, bench Tyreek this week. If you took away his one carry, which went for a 68-yard touchdown, Tyreek didn’t touch the ball. Hill made himself so invisible last week, he was only targeted 3 times for zero catches. This week he gets an even tougher defense to get open against. Denver gives up the least fantasy points to WRs and unless Hill can break off another long run he won’t be a good start to win a championship.

Prediction: 45 Total Yards 0 TDs: 4-8 Fantasy Points

 TE

Nice Start

  • Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (at Green Bay Packers)

Rudolph is guiding by sleigh again for the second week in a row. Last week I put Kyle on my surprise studs and he didn’t disappoint going for 8 catches and 97 yards. This week he should beat that with Green Bay giving up the 12th most fantasy points against TEs this season and the strong possibility of Stefon Diggs being a limited weapon with a hip injury. All signs point to the Kyle Rudolph show this week. Start with confidence.

Prediction: 100 Receiving Yards and 1 TD: 15-19 Fantasy Points

Naughty Start

  • Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins (at Chicago Bears)

This is only relevant if he ends up playing. Reed put egg on everyone’s face last week that started him, and if you’re still around to make the same mistake this week I would advise against it. Stop me if you heard this before, but Jordan “Fra-gee-lay” Reed is not healthy. Couple his health with the fact the Bears give up the 8th fewest fantasy points to TEs and you are looking at another buster week for Jordan.

Prediction: 40 Receiving Yards: 4-8 Fantasy Points

DEF

Nice Start

  • New York Giants (at Philadelphia Eagles)

The G-Men are hot and Carson Wentz gives the ball away faster than Donald Trump gives away national secrets to Vladimir Putin. The New York Giants have averaged over 18 fantasy points per game, as a defense, since week 7. That’s pretty good.

Naughty Start

  • Minnesota Vikings (at Green Bay Packers

If you have been watching football over the last few weeks, which I assume if you are reading this you have, you would know the Vikings have given up the Packers are running the table. Last week was a clear indication that all wheels have officially fallen off the Vikings bus when their only saving grace, the defense, got torched by Andrew Luck and the Colts. Imagine what a focused Aaron Rodgers is capable of.

 

-Paulie Bagga Walnuts

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