My top One and Done league Workday Charity Open pick: Hideki Matsuyama
Last week couldn’t have gone any worse. One of my favorite bets and One and Done pick, Kevin “Na, I don’t think I’ll finish this round,” withdrew after nine holes on day two. And, Richy Werenski and Wes Bryan, two of my Top 20 bets, each finished in a tie for 21st place. It was just one of those weeks where nothing went right. Oh well. The past is the past. Onto the Workday Charity Open.
I’m continuing to stick with my strategy that has garnered me past success when choosing my picks for PGA tournaments:
- Current form – Which golfers are currently playing at a high level in comparison to their peers, with consistency and high leaderboard finishes.
- Course/tournament history – The players who always tend to “show up” on the leaderboard at the same course/tournament year after year.
- Reviewing the tournament’s previous years’ leaderboards – This tells me what type of golfer tends to play well at this specific course (bombers, accuracy, ball strikers, good short game, etc.). Then I review player statistics to find out which golfers are currently excelling in those areas.
- Odds – I’ll do my research before looking at any odds. I typically have a list of 12-15 golfers then narrow it down based on who I think is the most undervalued to exploit their betting line. It’s always a good idea to “shop around” for golfer odds. Some sites have better odds than others.
- Patience/Luck/Gut Instinct – Each of these should have its own bullet point. 1) Be patient. You will not pick the tournament winner every single week. 2) You need the stars to align once in a while and get lucky. Most of the time, luck will be against you. And, 3) always go with your gut. Don’t be influenced by others. If you like a golfer, stick with them.
When all research is completed, and my golfer pool has been narrowed down, I place my bets. See below for my Workday Charity Open picks this week. I typically add a few props, such as first round leader (FRL), for fun. These are small wagers and I look for long-shots who can catch fire on any given day. Most of my success, however, has come from Top 10 and Top 20 bets.
Workday Charity Open Picks
*There are too many Honorable Mentions to, well, mention. Muirfield is a second-shot course so ball striking is key. Hovland, Morikawa, Hadwin, Cantlay, Hideki, and Woodland to name a few, are all solid options. I will be sprinkling each of them in my DraftKings lineups but didn’t like the numbers they were given by the books. Next week’s tournament is also at Muirfield Village, so maybe one or two of these golfers will have a down week and we’ll get a more appealing line for next.
Good luck to you all!