It’s been a few weeks, get off my back. R-E-L-A-X. That’s the beauty of daily fantasy sports. If things pop up on your schedule that limits you from research in a given week, you can simply take the week off and recharge the batteries. But let’s get back on the saddle and get to some plays for week 9.
Week 9 Preview
I keep waiting for Deshaun Watson to fall on his face and he just keeps putting up monster numbers. I’m going to keep being stubborn and fading him in gpps and assume the regression monster is going to catch up with him at some point. Russell Wilson has zero help in the running game right now so everything the Seahawks get is going to flow the Russ at this point (ignore the fact that he’s my favorite player). Carson Wentz is the odds-on favorite for MVP at this point and gets a home matchup versus the “No Fly Zone” Broncos secondary. I think with his depressed price tag (he was $7,200 on DK last week) and given how well he has played to this point he’s a viable option even if a tough matchup.
If you’re playing Thursday night start contests, play LeSean McCoy. The Houston Texans are massive -13 point home favorites over the Indianapolis Colts this week and if I’m going to continue to fade Watson/Hopkins/Fuller combo then I might dabble in some Lamar Miller shares as he projects for 20-22 touches. Mark Ingram is averaging 26.7 touches, 119 yards from scrimmage, 5 catches, 1.3 touchdowns per game since the Adrian Peterson trade (3 games) and he’s a -7 point home favorite versus Tampa Bay’s 30th ranked DVOA defense. Carlos Hyde has 13, 14, 12 rushing attempts and 6, 8, 9 targets the last three games. He’s coming off of a tough matchup with the Eagles defense so some people may shy away but the volume is there and the 49ers are only 2 point dogs to the Cardinals here. Maybe they lean on Hyde a little more this week with the QB situation in flux.
I’m getting tired writing about Watson and DeAndre Hopkins but they keep balling out every week and I have no issues with anyone playing them. Will Fuller on the other hand is just being silly. He has 13 catches in 4 games (4.7 per game) and 7 touchdowns. It’s just not sustainable to convert half of your receptions into TDs. I will continue to fade Fuller hard as he’s now the 5th-6th most expensive WR…regression has to come soon, right? T.Y. Hilton is under $5,000 on DraftKings. The narrative on Hilton is he’s better at home on the turf but the Texans also play in a dome and in 5 career games at Houston he’s averaging 5.4 receptions, 112 yards, 1 TD which equates to 25.4 DK points. People will look at his game logs and see that he’s boom or bust with two games over 27 points and six games with less than 9 points. I like this spot for Hilton in a matchup that he’s historically thrived in and where the Colts should be trailing. Sammy Watkins you say?!? Hear me out. It sounds like Janoris Jenkins is going to miss this game for the NY Giants. He’s their best cover guy and was likely to shadow Watkins here. The Giants are 22nd pass defense DVOA with Jenkins in the lineup so Watkins has a chance to get deep here and at his price he needs only one busted play to pay off in gpps.
Zach Ertz has been amazing this year. He has 80 yards or a TD in every game. The matchup with the Broncos might sound scary but they rank 27th pass DVOA versus TEs. If the “No Fly Zone” shuts down the Philly WRs it could mean additional targets for Ertz. I typically don’t like to chase guys coming off of big weeks but Jack Doyle has 39 targets over the last 4 games. The Colts should be trailing here which means Doyle should get plenty of targets in the 2nd half of this game.
Weekly reminder: I’m usually paying up for a big home favorite in a great matchup or finding a cheap home favorite in a less desirable spot which means I might just lock the Eagles into every lineup this week. Brock Osweiler will be starting at QB for Denver. The Eagles feel like they are about $1,000 too cheap in this spot.
That’s all I got for week 9. Feel free to send me some Head to Head matchups on DK and FantasyDraft, username Sgrignoli3. Good luck Pas-Holes!