Week 5 Recap
It was a decent week last week as Brian Hoyer led some of my teams to the Promised Land. It could have been a better week if I hadn’t gotten off of A.J. Green once I heard the rainy weather report coming out of Cincy. Le’Veon and Gurley not getting more carries was particularly frustrating but apparently Todd Haley rostered the Jags defense in his DFS lineups and thought it was cool to try to throw the ball against Sacksonville’s elite secondary. Evan Engram’s goose egg, despite every Giants WR succumbing to the injury bug, was super deflating given the ASJ was cheaper, chalkier, and sucked out a late TD versus the Browns.
Week 6 Preview
I listen to just about every notable daily fantasy football podcast that I can get my ears on and Deshaun Watson is getting alllllllll the love this week. I get it…the dude has been very good so far in games where the Texans play from behind. They are significant home favorites this week which might reduce Watson’s necessity to chase points in “Bortles Time.” Watson is no longer in the low 5,000s and he has 41 completions for 9 TDs over the past two weeks which is wholly unsustainable. If he’s going to be the chalk at QB this week then I’m just going to pay up for Drew Brees at home coming off of a bye for only a fraction more. Brees smashes at home, coming off of bye weeks. All the Brees for me this week.
If fairness, Le’Veon Bell is probably the top projected RB just about every week but his price tag is extreme this week so I think it makes sense to look elsewhere. Finally we get a week with some solid, projectable, value RB plays with McKinnon and the Saints RBs. McKinnon shined on Monday night and gets the benefit of week 6 pricing coming out prior to his big performance so the price tag doesn’t reflect his best and most current game. Adrian Peterson was dealt from the messy Saints backfield (and his nickname is “AD” for All Day not AP…stop calling him AP everyone, pleeeeease). While AD wasn’t getting many touches at 7ish per game, those touches will now get distributed between Ingram and Kamara in some ratio which raises both players’ floors and ceilings. Oh, and the Saints are playing in the game with the highest O/U this week. You can do some fun this with cheap RBs for the first time this year and it feels pretty good.
If I’m going to be off of Watson as the chalk play where most people look to stack QB/WR, then I am also going to be off of DeAndre Hopkins as well. Look, I am a Hopkins truther…any guy getting peppered with as many targets as he’s getting (2nd in the league behind AB with 12.2 targets/game) is always in play for me. But he’s coming off of a game where he caught 4 of 12 targets and scored 3 TDs. That screams regression.
The matchup for Watson/Hopkins is great with the Browns coming to town and there’s a chance I am completely wrong here but in daily fantasy sports you have to be willing to take stands on players, particularly when they are going to be the chalk. I may be wrong but it’s a calculated decision to fade this stack and I’m ready to live with the consequences (and subsequent Twitter storm on Sunday should they connect for 3 TDs again).
Having said all that about Hopkins, we have the perfect pivot off of Nuk in the form of Julio Jones at home, coming off of a bye, versus the hapless Dolphins. Mohamed Sanu is going to miss this game for the Falcons which should direct a few more targets towards Julio. People sometimes sleep on guys coming off of the bye weeks and with the highest implied team total on the board (30 points), Julio has the upside to win you a gpp.
I have to admit…I chuckled when I scrolled through prices this week and I saw Amari Cooper at 5,000 on DK. Yes, he’s been fairly terrible so far this year but I’m always willing to trust a player’s long term talent if the price is right (1,000+ yard seasons in his first two years in the league as a 21/22 year old). I don’t think he forgot how to be good; he’s just had a rough few games to start the season (I hope…). Again you have to be willing to take some stands and while I don’t know if I want to go quite 100% Cooper this week, I will have a fair share of him as long as Derek Carr is going to be at the helm (likely no shares if E.J. Manuel is under center).
Gronk is Gronk and as long as he’s healthy enough to play then he’s always going to be the premier option at TE. Jordan Reed is interesting this week, again coming off of the bye and sees his lowest price of the season. You may be able to slip Cousins/Crowder/Reed stack into some gpps with profitable results this week. On the cheaper side, Engram burned everyone last week with the aforementioned goose egg, but who is left to catch passes from Eli this week? Zach Miller saw 7 targets from Trubisky in his first career start and if you told me he’d see 6-8 targets again at his price tag this week then sign me up.
Weekly reminder: I’m usually paying up for a big home favorite in a great matchup or finding a cheap home favorite in a less desirable spot. If Denver is on whatever slate you are playing, just play Denver unequivocally. I wonder what odds you could get on the Giants scoring zero points in that game. The Steelers get a decent pass rush with 17 sacks through 5 games and will come at almost no ownership against an undefeated Chiefs team. The Browns are strictly a leverage play against the Watson/Hopkins stacks in large field gpps in the event that Watson turns into a pumpkin this week.
That’s all I got for week 6. Feel free to send me some Head to Head matchups on DK and FantasyDraft, username Sgrignoli3. Good luck in week 6 Pas-Holes!