Week 1 Recap
I split my action in week 1 for daily fantasy football between cash games on DraftKings and gpps (tournaments) on FantasyDraft as they had some decent overlay in their big $250K, $25 entry tourney (overlay = empty seats in a guaranteed tournament = higher expected value, or EV).
I was able to sweep every 50/50 and double up on DraftKings with the lineup below:
I swapped from Baldwin/Hyde to Marshall/Gurley once the OBJ news came out. As you can see from the ownership percentages, I rode a lot of chalk this week with 6 of my players over 48% owned. I started my DFS career focusing mostly on cash games and “letting the other players make mistakes” which has served me well to this point. I’ve had some success in gpps in MLB and NASCAR but not yet in NFL. For example, fading both Le’Veon and DJ was the optimal play in gpps this week, but I couldn’t force myself to zig when I knew most people would zag and I ended up with one or the other in every gpp lineup. I’m going to continue to ride the chalk in cash games and hone the gpp prowess and hope to hit something sweet this year.
In gpps on FantasyDraft I had $290 in play and won back $77.50. Not a great first week by any stretch but given the odd feel to week 1, not going broke feels like a small victory. These things happen in DFS and if you can’t stomach the down weeks, then perhaps you need a new hobby. We put week 1 behind us and now onto week 2.
Week 2 Preview
Wentz and Kizer were perfectly fine options at the low end of QB last week. The downside of those QBs was they allowed you to play #TeamJamEmIn (Le’Veon and DJ) which busted hard.
This week we have two games with totals over 50 with Patriots @ Saints with a 56 total and Packers @ Falcons sitting at 54 total. People are going to be loading up on the four studs QBs in these two games and rightfully so. In gpps, by all means, stack the QBs from these games with your favorite pass catching options from those teams.
In cash games I want the savings at QB given the narrow spectrum of variance from the top QBs to the mid-range QBs. Two guys catching my eye a tier lower are Russell Wilson ($6,800 DK, $12,700 FDraft) and Phillip Rivers ($5,800 DK, $10,900 FDraft). Wilson has fairly substantial home/road splits in his career and will be back with the “12th Man” Sunday versus the 49ers. Rivers is the cheap option I am likely going to flock to as he allows roster flexibility to jam in some of the skill players in those higher total games.
I was hoping Le’Veon would come at a little discount this week given his LeBron-esque flop in week 1 but that’s not the case. It’s easy to say he will have a better game at home here but the price tag is still massive.
The Falcons have been bleeding points to pass catching RBs over the past two years. They play the Packers this week whose top RB wears number 88. Ty Montgomery ($5,800 DK, $10,900 FDraft) is really good at catching passes because that used to be his full-time job as a WR for Green Bay. In full PPR formats gimme all the TyMont this week.
Melvin Gordon ($7,000 DK, $13,300 FDraft) continues to average less than 4.0 ypc but he gets all the volume and he’s a home favorite this week. He’s active in the passing game and gets the goal line work; very few RBs these days can claim such prestige.
One slightly off the board play I like this week is James White ($4,100 DK, $7,800 FDraft) in the expected shootout versus New Orleans. Everybody saw Mike Gillislee vulture 3 tds last Thursday night but it was White who out-snapped Gillislee 47 to 24. In a game where the pigskin should be flying all over the place I want an RB who has the ability to snag 6+ catches from an angry Tom Brady.
Julio Jones ($9,200 DK, $17,400 FDraft) is another player with sizable home/road splits. He enjoys the fast tracks in the dome on turf versus outdoors on grass. The Packers limited Russell Wilson last week but they always seem to have his number. This week should be different on the road versus the team coming off of the most efficient offensive performance in the history of the NFL.
Folks are going to be talking about the Brandin Cooks revenge game coming back to New Orleans. I can see him catching a deep ball and taking it to the house but Cooks is the 3rd highest priced WR this week which seems egregious. With Amendola out for the Pats, gimme some Chris Hogan ($5,600 DK, $10,500 FDraft) opposite of Cooks. Tons of people played Hogan in the Thursday start contests last week and got burned by him so the time to hop back on is when everyone jumps off.
Everyone saw what Stefon Diggs ($6,100 DK, $11,400 FDraft) did to the Saints on MNF. Pricing for this week came out prior to his explosion so last week’s performance isn’t priced into this week’s salary. I don’t think an away game at Pittsburgh is nearly as good of a situation for this Vikings offense but Sam Bradford looks to be developing the chemistry with Diggs and Thielen.
As long as Keenan Allen ($5,800 DK, $11,000 FDraft) is healthy Rivers is going to feed him targets. He got 10 targets in week 1 versus “The No Fly Zone” in Denver’s secondary and found pay dirt. I love Chargers at all positions this week coming back home here versus a suspect Miami defense.
Zach Ertz was the lock of all locks last week but his price jumped almost 50% in week 2. The only play really jumping out to me here is, gulp…Coby Fleener ($3,100 DK, $6,000 FDraft). I get it, Fleener came into the league with the Colts and had some nice chemistry with Luck but has essentially gone AWOL with the Saints. But as long as Willie Snead is out (which he is) Fleener is the middle of the field option for Drew Brees.
I don’t have any other super-hot takes at TE. I don’t envision going 100% Fleener as I did with Ertz last week so I’ll mix and match some spots and try to correlate my TEs to the rest of my lineups.
To be clear, any defense playing the Jets or Colts is in play particularly if they are at home. We want to target defenses favored at home. Here are my top 5 defenses for the week:
- Seahawks ($4,100 DK, $7,800 FDraft) Back in front of “12th Man” vs. Brian Hoyer.
- Raiders ($3,500 DK, $7,000 FDraft) 14 home favorite vs. aforementioned Jets.
- Ravens ($3,700 DK, $7,300 FDraft) Pitched a shutout in week 1, home to rookie QB in week 2.
- Chiefs ($2,900 DK, $5,600 FDraft) Sizable home favorite and priced cheap enough here.
- Bucs ($3,200 DK, $6,300 FDraft) Big home favorite versus suspect Glennon.
That’s a wrap for week 2 folks. Good luck this week PAS-holes!