Martin Truex Jr. led a race high 25 laps but ultimately blew a cylinder around lap 70 yielding the lead to California native Kevin Harvick who claimed victory at Sonoma. It was an interesting race seeing the strategies different teams used knowing the caution flags were coming at the predetermined stages. Teams without a chance to score stage points pitted ahead of the stage caution and started the following stage ahead of the drivers who stayed out battling for the stage points. This will be something we need to consider moving forward at road courses since drivers can pit and stay on the lead lap at the long, winding 1.99 mile road track and use some strategy to get their cars to the front.
In terms of DraftKings, we had another winning week. The more I thought about the game theory angle in large field gpps mid Sunday morning, the more comfortable I became in fading every driver starting inside the top 10. Given the strategies teams were talking about in regards to the stages, I envisioned scnearios where the drivers starting up front would get shuffled to the mid-teens or twenties on the restart after the stage cautions. Running up front is key at the road courses so the more I thought about ownership levels, I made a conscious decision to fully avoid Larson, Truex, and Allmendinger Sunday.
The strategy paid off! Truex was 33.12% owned and scored -12.75 points, Larson garnered 37.51% ownership and registered -2.75 points, and Allmendinger for all his road course hoopla coughed up -16.5 at 17.49% ownership. If you avoided those three landmines you were in a good position to cash in gpps. I only had enough time/energy to cobble together five lineups in the NAS $333K MEGA BEAST $8 entry. Rolling with Kenseth and Jimmie in all five lineups, I mixed and matched around them with guys who I believed had the upside to finish inside the top 10 and score solid place differential points.
I was able to cash all five of my lineups and (a little more than) double up for the week. None of the five lineups crushed it but cashing all five in a gpp was solid. Maybe we need to reconsider the DFS strategy at the road courses with the predetermined cautions now for stage scoring and treat them, somewhat, like the restrictor plates tracks going forward, albeit maybe not to the degree where we’re piling on folks starting 25th or worse and praying for a miracle.
Did somebody say restrictor plate track? This week we head back to Daytona International Speedway for race 17, the Coke Zero 400 Saturday night at 7:30pm. July/August are the months we start seeing some of the tracks repeat as NASCAR utilizes 23 tracks for its 36 races. This is a perfect week for a restrictor plate race as I will be on vacation this week. So how are we going to handle the plate track this week?
First, as Paul (@TheFFAdvantage) says to sign off The Point After Show podcast each time, “If you’ve made this far, thank you.” I’ve had a blast providing you folks with content all year and I’ve learned quite a bit along the way as well (exhibit A: Sonoma last week for example). And if you have made it this far then you know the deal at restrictor plate tracks: 1) scale back your volume, 2) play gpps only, don’t bother with cash games, and 3) stack your lineups with guys starting 25th or worse if you want to take down a big field gpp.
Avoiding the “Big One” is key at the plate tracks and the drivers starting in the back have the highest upside to score big place differential points if they avoid the wrecks and sneak into the top 12-15 spots.
That’s it for the write-up this week. No point in waiting for salaries or practice times or qualifying results. Just “Stack the Back” and hopefully you’ll be stacking cash too come Saturday night.
Good luck PAS-Holes and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle.