Carr Is Not As Good As Prescott
Derek Carr seems to be sparking the interest of a lot of fantasy football owners, and I can’t understand why. As a matter of fact, I believe Dak Prescott will be a better 2017 fantasy quarterback. Before you lose your mind and start hate mailing me let me present my case.
First let me start with the belief that Carr had an amazing year in 2016. False, he had a mediocre year, at best, in regards to fantasy value. The argument I hear most when talking to people is he was injured last year. Also false. He actually played all 16 weeks of the fantasy football season for owners. Alright, I will give you the excuse he broke his finger in week 12 versus Carolina, but he missed less than one quarter in the game. So did that injury prohibit him from throwing the ball? Nope, actually he averaged 34 pass attempts per game and only threw one interception through weeks 13-16.
The first 11 games of the season, he showed his true fantasy worth though right? Okay, let me give you a pass on the injury excuse and only look at the first 11 weeks of the season. As far as fantasy statistics are concerned, through week 11, Carr was ranked the 8th best quarterback. So who was ahead of him? None other than Dak Prescott.
2016 Statistics
From a statistics perspective Derek Carr had a great season for the Oakland Raiders in 2016. However, as any fantasy owners know, good real statistics don’t always equate to good fantasy statistics. The major statistics fantasy owners look for in a quarterback include: Scrimmage yards, touchdowns and turnovers.
Scrimmage Yards
Passing are essential for fantasy statistics, but don’t overlook the mobile quarterback. Think about this, quarterback points for passing yards are typically 1 point for every 25 yards and rushing is 1 point for every 10 yards. Having a mobile quarterback can make a huge difference, just ask 2015 Cam Newton and Russell Wilson owners.
Carr finished the season as the 14th best quarterback for passing yards with 3933, but only rushed for whopping 70 yards. Dak Prescott finished 19th in fantasy quarterbacks for passing yards with 3667 but also added 282 yards rushing.
Carr – 3933 passing yards divided by 25 equals 157 points. 70 rushing yards divided by 10 equals 7 points. Total points 164
Prescott – 3667 passing yards divided by 25 equals 146 points. 282 rushing yards divided by 10 equals 28 points. Total points 174
WINNER: Prescott
Touchdowns
In most leagues, touchdown passes are essential for quarterback scoring, but a rushing touchdown is typically more valuable. In standard scoring, touchdown throws are worth 4 fantasy points and rushing touchdowns are worth 6 fantasy points.
Carr finished the 2016 season with 28 total touchdowns, ranking him 8th. Unfortunately, he did not run a touchdown in all season. Dak Prescott, on the other hand, had 23 passing touchdowns ranking him 16th. Dak also had 6 rushing touchdowns that ranked him 1st.
Carr – 28 passing touchdowns multiplied by 4 equals 112 points. 0 rushing touchdowns gives him 0 points. Total points 112.
Prescott – 23 passing touchdowns multiplied by 4 equals 92 points. 6 rushing touchdowns multiplied by 6 equals 36 points. Total points 128.
WINNER: Prescott
Turnovers
Oh yeah! Here is where Derek Carr separated himself from everyone else, right? Carr only threw 6 interceptions all of last season. That ranks him number 4 among quarterbacks that started at least 13 games last season. So who were the 1,2 and 3 guys? Tom Brady (the GOAT), Alex Smith (the ultimate game manager) and Dak Prescott. Yep! Dak had only 4 interceptions last season. Since turnovers in fantasy included interceptions and fumbles we will include fumbles also. In standard scoring leagues a turnover is negative 4 points.
Carr – 6 interceptions and 5 fumbles for a total of 11 turnovers. 11 multiplied by negative 4 equals negative 44 points.
Prescott – 4 interceptions and 6 fumbles for a toal of 10 turnovers. 10 multiplied by negative 4 equals negative 40 points.
WINNER: Prescott
In closing, I will say this, I understand this was Prescott’s rookie season and now that defenses can adjust to him he should regress. Should but Won’t. Why? He has an elite offensive line that keeps him upright. In addition he has Ezekiel Elliott lined up behind him and Dez Bryant to throw to. Carr has no run threat to keep safeties and linebackers from dropping into coverage. They obviously know Carr isn’t a threat to run. Although I will still rank Carr as my 11th quarterback off the board, Prescott for me is top 10 value.
So for all of you fantasy owners and ride or die Raider fans out there drooling over Derek Carr for 2017, I’m sorry, but he’s just not that damn good. Deal with it!
Follow me on Twitter: @TheFFAdvantage